January · The Latticework
Knowledge only works when it hangs together. A fact you cannot connect is a fact you will forget. This month builds the frame the other eleven hang on.
A year-long course in not fooling yourself: a verified quotation, a three-minute essay, and one question, for every day of the year.
for Founders, Investors, and Managers: 366 Meditations on Mental Models, Misjudgment, and Money
One bad hire costs a year. One bad acquisition costs a decade. One bad partner can cost you the company. Avoided mistakes compound like invested money, and almost nobody studies avoidance. The standard stupidities never go out of style: people overpaid for glamour stocks in 1720, in 1999, and in 2021, and founders ran out of cash in every decade on record. The names change. The errors are reruns. This book studies the reruns, one page a day, until you recognize them from the opening scene.
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02 · What it is
Start on today's date, or on January 1, or anywhere. The year is a circle; you will pass every page eventually.
Each page has three parts: a quotation, verified and attributed; a short essay; and a closing prompt, a question to sit with or a small action to take. The prompt is the point. Reading the page takes three minutes; the page only pays if the prompt survives into your day.
The months are themed, and later pages assume earlier ones the way a course assumes its prerequisites. Cross-references like "February 14" point back to the day where an idea was built. Ignore them on a first pass; they are for the second. At the back, Sources by Day lists where every quotation comes from, and Further Reading lists the books behind each month, in the order I would hand them to a friend.
Two habits multiply the book's value. Keep a notebook; many prompts ask you to write, and the writing is where the thinking happens. And reread. The same page reads differently in a bull market and a bear market, before a decision and after one.
03 · Who it's for
The pages rotate among three readers, because the three jobs share one underlying craft: making decisions under uncertainty, with other people's trust at stake. Most days speak to all three. All days speak to the person underneath the job.
And anyone who suspects the expensive mistakes are more avoidable than the successes are copyable.
04 · The year
The content follows Peter Bevelin's map and the thinkers he drew on. The first half builds the frame and studies how the mind fails. The second half turns outward: money, investing, management, founding, and what all of it is for.
Knowledge only works when it hangs together. A fact you cannot connect is a fact you will forget. This month builds the frame the other eleven hang on.
Your brain is legacy hardware. Bevelin, following Munger, cataloged twenty-eight psychological reasons we misjudge. One per day, with the leap day for what happens when several fire at once.
February cataloged the bugs. March installs the patches: procedures, questions, and habits that catch the error before it ships. None of them are clever. All of them work because they don't depend on you being at your best.
About ten ideas, held firmly: compounding, probability, expected value, regression, ruin. Most expensive errors are not calculation failures. They are failures to see that a calculation applies.
Markets are ecosystems with quarterly reporting. Variation and selection, niches and predators, signals and mimicry, extinction and adaptation. Where the analogy breaks, the book says so.
A company is not a machine with levers. It is a system, and it answers every intervention with consequences you did not order. The fix is almost never "try harder."
Money decisions are made in minds, by people with histories, fears, and neighbors. Morgan Housel's territory: why keeping wealth is a different skill from making it. Less math than April. More mirrors.
Everything you need to know about investing fits in a pamphlet, and the pamphlet has been public for ninety years. Almost nobody can follow it. The barriers are temperamental, not intellectual.
Design the incentives, deserve the trust, tell the truth fast, delegate to the edge, protect the standards, build a machine that runs without you. None of it requires charisma. All of it requires spine.
Survival, focus, customers, cash, partners, pricing, and the long game, with the base rates in view and the romance left at the door. The failures cluster around a short list of preventable causes. This month is that list.
Munger's 1986 commencement trick: prescribe guaranteed misery and let the audience invert. The reliable roads to failure, then a week in Sherlock Holmes's company. Wisdom, this month insists, is mostly subtraction.
What is all this optimization for? The Stoics, whom Munger read and quoted; the virtues that outlast portfolios; the arithmetic of enough. Wisdom's last application is not a better decision. It is a life you would re-choose.
05 · Two pages from the book
Every page in the book looks like these two. The first opens the year. The second opens November.
"When you have faults, do not fear to abandon them."
CONFUCIUS, Analects (trans. James Legge)
Start with uncomfortable arithmetic. One bad hire costs a year. One bad acquisition costs a decade. One bad partner can cost you the company. Avoided mistakes compound like invested money. Almost nobody studies avoidance.
We study success stories instead. They flatter us. Failures instruct us, and we skip them.
Wisdom, as this book uses the word, is not brilliance. It is a working knowledge of how things fail, held firmly enough that you fail less often than the people around you. That is a real competitive advantage, because the standard stupidities never go out of style. People overpaid for glamour stocks in 1720, in 1999, and in 2021. Founders ran out of cash in every decade on record. The names change. The errors are reruns.
Confucius stated the entry fee twenty-five centuries ago. You will commit faults. The question is what happens next. Most people defend the fault, because admitting it stings. So they pay for the same lesson twice, then a third time, at rising prices. The second bill is rarely denominated in money alone. It comes in years, in partners, in the chance that does not come back.
This year, one page a day, we study the reruns until you recognize them from the opening scene.
Ask yourself: What mistake have I already paid for more than once? What would it take to actually abandon it?
"It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent."
CHARLIE MUNGER
Munger is not claiming that brilliance is worthless, or that Berkshire won by accident. He is observing where the returns actually came from, and his answer is avoidance. Not the genius trades made, but the standard stupidities not committed: the leverage not taken, the manias not joined, the reputations not gambled. Buffett put it the same way in the 1989 letter, after twenty-five years of buying businesses. He and Munger had not learned to solve difficult business problems. They had learned to avoid them, by looking for one-foot hurdles to step over rather than seven-foot ones they might clear.
The arithmetic runs through this book. Errors are asymmetric. Losses require outsized gains to repair (April 20), and some end the game entirely; no accumulated brilliance survives one act of terminal stupidity. Errors are also more predictable than successes. Nobody can list next decade's winning ideas, but February's twenty-eight failure modes have been constant for centuries. Avoiding the known and recurring beats predicting the unknown, on reliability alone.
And the competition is thinner. The pursuit of brilliance is crowded with ambitious people bidding up the price of cleverness. The pursuit of non-stupidity is nearly deserted, because it is unglamorous, invisible when it works (January 29), and pays in disasters that never happened. Munger's folk saying completes the thought: it's the strong swimmers who drown. The confident, the brilliant, the credentialed swim out too far.
Ask yourself: Will this year's results improve more from one brilliant addition, or from deleting my two most repeatable stupidities? Name the two.
06 · The quotations
Every epigraph in the book was checked against a primary source before inclusion: the original text, the original letter or speech, the shareholder letter on the company's own site, or a scholarly edition. Where a beloved quotation could not be verified, it was left out rather than hedged. Proverbs and sayings are labeled as what they are, the property of nobody in particular.
Five famous lines you may expect to find are corrected instead of repeated.
Charlie Munger is quoted twenty times and Warren Buffett fifteen, both at a deliberate cap. Benjamin Franklin, Charles Darwin, Francis Bacon, Seneca, Marcus Aurelius, and Aesop follow. Howard Marks, Ben Graham, and Morgan Housel appear a few times each. Almost everything else is public domain, quoted from public-domain translations, and Sources by Day at the back lists where all 366 come from.
07 · Where it came from
In 2003, a Swedish businessman named Peter Bevelin published a strange and wonderful book called Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger. He wrote it, he said, to learn: collecting in one place what Darwin, Munger, Buffett, and a hundred scientists and philosophers had figured out about why we misjudge, and how to do better. It became an underground classic among investors and founders, passed hand to hand like a map.
I have read many books on this subject and will read more. This one was born when I asked myself whether there was a book that would provide a daily dose of wisdom, the way a supplement provides a daily dose of vitamins. I could not find one, and in February 2024 I started writing it.
The daily format is old. Tolstoy spent his last years assembling A Calendar of Wisdom; a century later, Ryan Holiday's The Daily Stoic and Robert Greene's The Daily Laws proved the form still works. It works because wisdom is not a download. It is a practice, and practices run on repetition. You cannot read your way into better judgment in a weekend. You might, page by page, over a year, train your way into it.
Three promises. Every quotation was verified against a primary source before it went in. The ideas are credited: where a framing belongs to Munger, Buffett, Housel, Bevelin, or anyone else, their name is on it, and the connective tissue and the mistakes are mine. And nothing here is theory I haven't needed. I have spent my working life building software and companies, and every page is something I learned the expensive way or watched someone else pay for.
08 · About the author
09 · Read it
Join the newsletter and the October sample lands in your inbox: the introduction, all thirty-one days of The Founder's Path, and the sources at the back. The Kindle edition is on pre-order and arrives October 6, 2026.
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A year-long course in not fooling yourself. 366 one-page meditations for founders, investors, and managers, in the mental-model tradition of Charlie Munger and Peter Bevelin. Each page holds a verified quotation, a short essay, and one question or action to carry into the day.
Operators who decide for a living: founders watching runway, investors watching themselves, managers building machines that run without them. The three jobs share one craft, making decisions under uncertainty with other people's trust at stake, and the pages rotate among them.
Three parts on one page. A quotation, checked against its primary source. An essay of about 250 words. A closing prompt, either a question to sit with (Ask yourself) or a small action to take (Try this). Reading the page takes three minutes.
January builds the latticework of mental models. February and March cover the psychology of misjudgment and its antidotes. April is the mathematics of wisdom. May reads business through Darwin. June is systems and second-order effects. July is the psychology of money, August the investor's temperament, September the manager's craft, October the founder's path. November is the not-to-do list. December asks what all of it is for.
The Kindle edition is on pre-order now and is delivered on October 6, 2026. Paperback and hardcover editions follow the Kindle release. A free sample, the whole month of October, goes to anyone who joins the newsletter.
366 meditations, one per page, about 104,000 words. The print edition runs 399 pages at 6 by 9 inches. Read one page a day, or raid it before a decision.
Yes. Every epigraph was checked against a primary source: the original text, letter, or speech, or the shareholder letter on the company's own site. Where a beloved quotation could not be verified, it was left out. Five famous misattributions are corrected in the book rather than repeated.
No. Start on today's date, or anywhere. The year is a circle and you will pass every page eventually. Cross-references point back to the day where an idea was built; ignore them on a first pass.
No. The book is for general education. It is not investment, legal, tax, or medical advice, and no reader should act on it without consulting qualified professionals.